Current and projected climate change in the Mekong Delta

Abstract

This article evaluates trends in past and projected future climate change at the Mekong Delta. The study is based on updated observation data gathered up to 2014, and the latest climate change scenarios published by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE). The results show that the mean annual temperature increased by 0.3 to 0.9°C, and annual rainfall increased by 5 basis points to 20% at most observation stations during the years 1958-2014. In comparison to the baseline (1986-2005), temperatures were projected to increase by between 1.3 to 1.4°C in the middle of the century and by between 1.7 to 1.9°C at the end of the century, under the medium scenario (RCP4.5). According to the high scenario of RCP8.5, temperatures likely increased by 1.8 to 2°C in the middle of the century and 3.4 to 3.6°C at the end of the century. Annual rainfall is expected to increase from 10 to 20% in the mid-21st century under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios; increase of 30% in a part of the northern Mekong Delta under the RCP8.5 scenario.