Proposing fuel consumption limits for new vehicles to support Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution

Abstract

Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) sets a target of reducing total greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector by 34.33%, equivalent to approximately 15.66 million tonnes of CO₂, by 2030. This study was conducted to forecast the potential for achieving that target through the application of a fuel consumption limit for cars with fewer than nine seats and for motorbikes in Vietnam. The results show that the number of new cars increased rapidly from 159,289 vehicles in 2016 to 347,287 vehicles in 2022. Similarly, the number of new motorbikes increased from 2,917,086 units in 2020 to 3,202,554 units in 2022. The average fuel consumption of vehicles with fewer than nine seats and an average engine displacement of 1,748 cc was 6.98 L/100 km during the 2016-2022 period, while the average fuel consumption of motorbikes was 1.96 L/100 km. By applying an annual reduction rate in fuel consumption of approximately 4%, based on current levels, and under GDP growth scenarios ranging from 8 to 11% (forecast for 2025-2030), the total reduction in CO₂ emissions is projected to range from 15.73 to 16.53 million tonnes. This reduction would meet the target set in Vietnam’s updated 2022 NDC.